Eval Outcome Dashboard
This page treats eval accounts as a barrier problem, not a PnL problem. It focuses on pass speed, bust risk, not-yet-passed accounts, cushion-to-bust, launch-regime stability, and cohort behavior. Source of truth is the Rust runtime-replay summary.
Cohort Campaign View
Contiguous historical launch cohorts sorted by launch time. This avoids pretending starts are independent IID samples.
| Cohort | By | Samples | Exp passes | P(at least 1) | P(zero) | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N=3 | 5d | 105 | 0.27 | 12.4% | 87.6% | 0 | 3 |
| N=3 | 10d | 105 | 1.50 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 0 | 3 |
| N=3 | 20d | 105 | 2.86 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 0 | 3 |
| N=3 | 30d | 105 | 2.87 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 0 | 3 |
| N=5 | 5d | 63 | 0.44 | 14.3% | 85.7% | 0 | 5 |
| N=5 | 10d | 63 | 2.49 | 63.5% | 36.5% | 0 | 5 |
| N=5 | 20d | 63 | 4.76 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 | 5 |
| N=5 | 30d | 63 | 4.78 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 | 5 |
| N=10 | 5d | 31 | 0.90 | 19.4% | 80.6% | 0 | 10 |
| N=10 | 10d | 31 | 4.90 | 80.6% | 19.4% | 0 | 10 |
| N=10 | 20d | 31 | 9.52 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 5 | 10 |
| N=10 | 30d | 31 | 9.55 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 5 | 10 |
Launch-Time Stability Heatmap
Counts by launch month and pass-speed bucket. This is a quick check for clustering by regime.
| Launch month | <=5d | 6-10d | 11-15d | 16-20d | 21-30d | >30d pass | incomplete | bust | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 14 | 25 | 6 | 45 | |||||
| 2025-10 | 26 | 17 | 13 | 56 | |||||
| 2025-11 | 16 | 32 | 12 | 60 | |||||
| 2025-12 | 23 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 76 | |||
| 2026-01 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 57 | |||
| 2026-02 | 17 | 5 | 22 |
Lowest Cushion Starts
| Launch | Outcome | Days | Min Cushion | Max DD | Final | Worst Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03T131600 | passed | 10 | $680 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T102800 | incomplete | 27 | $683 | $1,458 | $49,355 | $-699 |
| 2025-11-24T125000 | passed | 13 | $702 | $1,482 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2026-02-04T110800 | passed | 13 | $725 | $1,962 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-02-04T124800 | passed | 13 | $735 | $1,504 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-02-04T130100 | passed | 13 | $735 | $1,504 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2025-12-24T095100 | passed | 21 | $759 | $1,405 | $53,000 | $-628 |
| 2026-01-28T103500 | passed | 11 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-28T104800 | passed | 11 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T095200 | passed | 10 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T100200 | passed | 11 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T112100 | passed | 13 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-30T112400 | passed | 12 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-30T120700 | passed | 12 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-30T121700 | passed | 12 | $800 | $1,888 | $53,000 | $-699 |
Slowest Passes
| Launch | Outcome | Days | Min Cushion | Max DD | Final | Worst Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24T095100 | passed | 21 | $759 | $1,405 | $53,000 | $-628 |
| 2025-11-12T105300 | passed | 19 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2025-11-13T114200 | passed | 18 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2025-11-13T124800 | passed | 18 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2025-11-13T133200 | passed | 18 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2025-10-10T112400 | passed | 18 | $1,418 | $1,122 | $53,000 | $-175 |
| 2025-10-10T130200 | passed | 18 | $1,418 | $1,122 | $53,000 | $-175 |
| 2025-10-10T094800 | passed | 18 | $1,507 | $1,122 | $53,000 | $-175 |
| 2025-10-10T111900 | passed | 18 | $1,507 | $1,122 | $53,000 | $-175 |
| 2025-10-10T135700 | passed | 18 | $1,507 | $1,122 | $53,000 | $-175 |
| 2026-01-29T100500 | passed | 17 | $813 | $1,328 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T105000 | passed | 17 | $820 | $1,814 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2026-01-29T104900 | passed | 17 | $849 | $1,674 | $53,000 | $-699 |
| 2025-11-13T095500 | passed | 17 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
| 2025-11-13T103700 | passed | 17 | $1,048 | $1,613 | $53,000 | $-691 |
Files And Caveats
Files: eval_trials.csv, eval_dashboard_summary.json, all-trials equity-path view, random curve page.
This dashboard summarizes existing replay outcomes. It does not create new account semantics. If the replay artifacts are stale or generated under wrong runtime semantics, this page will faithfully summarize the wrong artifact.